- OVERVIEW
Trump–Xi Summit: What Should the Shipping Market Watch Next?
Trade Truce: Stability Is Positive for Cargo Flows
The extension of the U.S.–China trade truce until January 2027 reduces the immediate risk of another sharp tariff escalation. This matters for shipping because tariffs can change sourcing patterns, delay purchasing decisions and disrupt established trade routes. Greater predictability could encourage importers and exporters to resume cargo commitments, supporting container, dry bulk and potentially tanker demand.
China also remains the world’s top manufacturing nation and the largest producer and exporter of intermediate goods – both by large margins. Chinese firms have ramped up both sales to and outbound investment in third-country production hubs facing lower US tariffs. China’s trade engine has proven remarkably adaptable.
Against this backdrop, the three-day Trump–Xi summit provides a welcome measure of relief.
The two countries agreed to work towards more favourable tariff treatment for approximately US$30 billion of non-sensitive goods in each direction and operationalised a bilateral Board of Trade.
Agricultural and Energy Trade Could Move the Needle
Agricultural purchases remain an important part of U.S.–China negotiations. Any acceleration in Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans and other commodities would directly benefit Pacific dry-bulk movements. Energy deserves equal attention: increased Chinese purchases of U.S. energy products could lengthen voyage distances compared with regional sourcing, potentially creating additional ton-mile demand. China has already committed to importing at least 10 million metric tonnes of U.S. coal in both 2027 and 2028. This might be a stepping stone to the possibility purchase of oil and gas from the Great State of Alaska which was touted by Trump on October last year.
Rare Earths and Technology Remain Strategic Risks
Despite the friendlier diplomatic tone, competition over rare earths, semiconductors and advanced technology remains unresolved. Restrictions involving critical minerals could affect manufacturing supply chains and indirectly reshape commodity movements.
Shipping Itself Is Part of the Negotiation
One particularly important issue is the treatment of Chinese-built and Chinese-linked vessels. Maritime and business groups have urged Washington to extend the suspension of Section 301-related vessel fees beyond November. China-built vessels represent a meaningful share of global ocean carrier capacity, the practical effect of the tariffs and fees would not be limited to a narrow set of market participants.
The costs would ripple across shipping networks, affect vessel deployment decisions, and increase uncertainty for businesses that have limited ability to control the ownership, operation, or construction history of the vessels used to transport their goods.
The summit provides stability rather than certainty.
A prolonged trade truce could support cargo confidence, but unresolved structural disputes mean trade flows can still shift quickly. For shipowners, charterers and brokers, the key indicators ahead are U.S.–China commodity purchasing commitments, energy flows, vessel-related trade measures and the next round of Trump–Xi negotiations.
The next expected Trump–Xi meeting is in China in November 2026.
- PLATTS TREND
| WORLD SCALE | 22-Sep-26 | 23-Sep-26 | 24-Sep-26 | 7-DAYS AVERAGE | 1-DAY CHANGE | 7-DAYS CHANGE | 7-DAYS-CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPORE/JPN (30 KT) | 433 | 448 | 448 | 426.75 | 0 | 42.5 | 10.48% |
| SPORE/OZ (35 KT) | 460 | 475 | 475 | 453.75 | 0 | 42.5 | 9.83% |
| KOREA /OZ (35 KT) | 460 | 465 | 470 | 454.69 | 5 | 27.5 | 6.21% |
| INDIA/JAPAN (35 KT) | 395 | 400 | 425 | 394.38 | 25 | 75 | 21.43% |
| $1 = $1K | 22-Sep-26 | 23-Sep-26 | 24-Sep-26 | 7-DAYS AVERAGE | 1-DAY CHANGE | 7-DAYS CHANGE | 7-DAYS-CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPORE/HK | 1125 | 1175 | 1200 | 1,122.50 | 25 | 125 | 11.63% |
| KOREA/SPORE | 1700 | 1725 | 1775 | 1,671.88 | 50 | 175 | 10.94% |
| KOREA/JAPAN | 1200 | 1225 | 1250 | 1,212.50 | 25 | 50 | 4.17% |
| KOREA/H.K. | 1425 | 1450 | 1475 | 1,426.25 | 25 | 65 | 4.61% |
| KOREA/USWC | 3,325 | 3,375 | 3,425 | 3,325.00 | 50 | 150 | 4.58% |
| WORLD SCALE | 22-Sep-26 | 23-Sep-26 | 24-Sep-26 | 7-DAYS AVERAGE | 1-DAY CHANGE | 7-DAYS CHANGE | 7-DAYS-CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AG/JAPAN (55 KT) | 785 | 840 | 875 | 776.88 | 35 | 190 | 27.74% |
| AG/JAPAN (75 KT) | 785 | 840 | 875 | 776.88 | 35 | 190 | 27.74% |
| OMAN G. /JAPAN (55 KT) | 385 | 440 | 470 | 375.94 | 30 | 190 | 67.86% |
| OMAN G. /JAPAN (75 KT) | 410 | 465 | 500 | 401.88 | 35 | 190 | 61.29% |
- REPORTED FIXTURES
| VESSEL | SIZE | GRADE | L/C | LOAD | DISCHARGE | FREIGHT | CHTRS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TORM DEHRADUN | 35 | CPP | 10 OCT | KOREA | SPORE – CHITT | $1.775M-2.475M | UNIPEC |
| SANTHIA | 75 | NAP | 08 OCT | STS SOHAR | JAPAN | WS470 | ADMIC |
- SHIPPING STOCKS MARKET WATCH
Hafnia sells $300m new shares at discount after raising Torm stake to 20%. It revealed proceeds would be used to strengthen its balance sheet following its earlier purchases of Torm shares, including the repayment of debt taken on to fund them.
Tanker shortage sends oil-shipping rates soaring. Drone attacks that shut Saudi Arabia’s bypass pipeline earlier this month have forced more crude back through the Strait of Hormuz and onto a tanker fleet already stretched thin.
- 📰 GLOBAL BUNKER PRICE REPORT
(US$/MT)
| 22-Sept | 23-Sept | 24-Sept | 3-DAYS AVERAGE | 1-DAY CHANGE | 3-DAYS CHANGE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VLSFO 0.5 | ||||||
| SINGAPORE | 858.5 | 859.5 | 874.0 | 864.0 | +14.5 | +15.5 |
| FUJAIRAH | 994.0 | 982.0 | 996.0 | 990.7 | +14.0 | +2.0 |
| ROTTERDAM | 697.0 | 691.0 | 690.0 | 692.7 | -1.0 | -7.0 |
| HOUSTON | 749.5 | 746.0 | 760.5 | 752.0 | +14.5 | +11.0 |
| MGO | ||||||
| SINGAPORE | 1310.0 | 1328.5 | 1325.0 | 1321.2 | -3.5 | +15.0 |
| FUJAIRAH | 1661.5 | 1686.0 | 1698.0 | 1681.8 | +12.0 | +36.5 |
| ROTTERDAM | 1430.0 | 1465.0 | 1432.0 | 1442.3 | -33.0 | +2.0 |
| HOUSTON | 1433.0 | 1413.5 | 1435.0 | 1427.2 | +21.5 | +2.0 |
| GLOBAL MARKET | 1525.0 | 1541.5 | 1548.5.0 | 6183.8 | +7.0 | +23.5 |
| IFO 380 (HSFO) |
||||||
| SINGAPORE | 709.0 | 695.0 | 711.5 | 705.2 | +16.5 | +2.5 |
| FUJAIRAH | 702.0 | 679.5 | 701.0 | 694.2 | +21.5 | -1.0 |
| ROTTERDAM | 591.0 | 593.0 | 609.5 | 597.8 | +16.5 | +18.5 |
| HOUSTON | 537.0 | 528.0 | 552.5 | 539.2 | +24.5 | +15.5 |
| GLOBAL MARKET | 698.0 | 701.5 | 727.5 | 709.0 | +26.0 | +29.5 |
VLSFO
VLSFO prices showed mixed movements over the three-day period, with Singapore, Fujairah and Houston increasing while Rotterdam declined. The market remained sensitive to Middle East supply risks, as a Houthi attack on Saudi Arabia on 24 September pushed oil prices higher and raised concerns over further disruption to regional oil flows. At the same time, renewed hopes for a U.S.-Iran truce helped limit the increase in crude prices.
MGO
MGO prices increased across all major bunkering hubs during the three-day period. The strength in MGO is consistent with continued tightness in the global diesel market, as Middle East and Russian supply disruptions have reduced refined-product availability. Reuters reported that global diesel prices had reached record levels, while industry analysts expected the diesel shortage to remain into 2027.
HSFO
HSFO prices moved higher across most major bunkering hubs during the three-day period, with only Fujairah showing a small decline. The increase was supported by renewed concerns over Middle East supply after the Houthi attack on Saudi Arabia. At the same time, the market continues to face a tighter fuel-oil supply outlook because refiners affected by the war are prioritizing diesel and other higher-value products rather than fuel oil.
- SOURCES
- SeatradeMaritimeNews (2026). Shipping urges Chinese vessel port fee delay as Trump-Xi summit begins; accessed September 2026
- com (2025). Navigating the 2025 Section 301 Maritime Transport Service Fees, accessed September 2026.
- Bloomberg (2026). China’s $112 Billion Cargo Gap Shows Record US Tariff Evasion; accessed September 2026.
- com (2026). US and China in five charts: How trade, oil and rare earths shape their rivalry; accessed September 2026.
- com (2025). Trump Hints China Could Resume Buying U.S. Energy; accessed September 2026.
- Reuter (2026). Trump says he will meet Xi in China in November; accessed September 2026.
- S&P Global Commodity Insights (Platts). Clean tanker freight assessments and tanker market intelligence, accessed September 2026.
- Saxo Investor, accessed September 2026.
- Firstlink Research Team. (2026). Internal Market Analysis . Firstlink Global Pte. Ltd., Singapore.
1 Comment
Nice article. The trade truce between US and China is good news for cargo flows in the short term, but shipowners and charterers still need to watch out for potential new regulations and the market deals.