MR rates following TC1/TC5 & continue the uptrend or remain stable at least for the 2H of January.
Commentary
MR rates following TC1/TC5 & continue the uptrend or remain stable at least for the 2H of January.
MR Market Outlook – Next 5–7 Days TC1/TC5 Continue to take the lead coming up 35 points week on week, we are already seeing MR rates following suit & should expect them to continue the uptrend or remain stable at least for the 2H of January. Far-east positions remains tight for the rest of January.
Market has probably priced in the risk earlier when Trump threatened military action in Iran. Now that it is easing or at least a softer stance, then the price comes off. Israel and the Arab nations also acting behind the scene to discourage Trump from military action.
With the supply glut, we’d say the recent oil price rise was moderate.
Uptick on the AG-Japan may be due to the unrest in Iran. From the latest news, it seems that the unrest has subsided and oil prices are settling in. The risk premium has been adjusted, and we might see a pushing down factor on the freight rate.
In Venezuela, the export cut is also reversing. Seems there will be more trade in the West Coast American basin. This might tighten the tonnage supply from the Far East.
OPEC projected the supply and demand will be near balance in 2026, this is good news considering previously we are expecting a global oil glut. Maybe the forecast also considers China to become a heavyweight crude oil importer which its import rose 17% in Dec 2025 compared to the previous year. For the coming weeks we might have a less risk premium on the freight but a more liquid demand. My crystal ball for the coming weeks is a flat slightly bullish market with the winter season still drives up the demand.
Small Tankers Overview The Southeast Asia and Far East markets remained broadly stable this week, though momentum has softened slightly. Intra-SEA activity continues to be driven by CPP spot demand, particularly on the SR segment, but this has not been enough to absorb the overall tonnage surplus, while chemical and palm trades remain subdued amid weaker regional export performance. Northbound sentiment stays weak with limited spot interest, as owners increasingly favour short-haul or westbound employment unless repositioning economics justify northbound runs. In the Far East, ongoing adverse weather and congestion have tightened prompt availability, especially for sub-8k dwt vessels ahead of the Lunar New Year, keeping freight steady despite operational disruptions. Southbound activity saw a modest pickup on blending components out of North China, while westbound enquiries for February improved slightly, supported by biofuel movements to Europe. Overall, freight levels across regions remain largely unchanged at last-done, with owners reluctant to concede further given already compressed returns.
Special Coverage Europe cuts Russian oil price cap again from $47.60 a barrel to $44.10 a barrel. The EU wants to lower Russian revenue in funding its war with Ukraine. The Russian war with Ukraine has caused a security threat for the EU because the war is just in front of their doorstep. There are disruptions in trade, civil casualties and regional peace. AS a consequence, the EU is hoping Russia could back off from its war with lower revenue from crude oil.
The US is a net exporter, so it is somewhat immune from the crude oil supply disruption. However, it still needs stability in the crude oil market otherwise there could be energy price inflation which will be disastrous for the US own people. If they are too aggressive in pressing Russia, there could be supply shocks for crude oil which inflate prices.
Rather than suppressing Russia via the price cap, the US is pressing via its enforcement arms OFAC (Office of Foreign Assets Control) which targets Russian related trade partners and institutions.
Lower price cap means less trading opportunities. Thus, there would be less employment for the mainstream legit tonnage especially in the Baltic. This would make some Owners run their way to other regions in search for vessel’s employment. Overall, it would be a lower freight rate due to more ships in the market.
Many European Ship Owners would haul its fleet to Far East, AG, and Africa to get more demand. This will pressure the freight rate down. However, there is unrest in Iran, which might spike the demand. We are expecting both pushing down and pulling up factors in the market. Overall freight market is flat and slightly bullish.
Bunker Recent Trend and Forecast:
Other insights: Honesty is the Best Policy Industry dynamics revolves around relationships. Special arrangements can be made, albeit should not be taken for granted. For example, even though there is no advantage to charterers, vessel swaps can still be done provided owners come clean with an honest reason and commercially sound. The laycan extension might follow multiple times of vessel swapping, and the extension might result in more than one week delay over the original laycan. Although Charterers’ accommodation was based on empathy and relationship, repeated occurrences might compromise reputations and future opportunities.
News & Commentaries
MR rates following TC1/TC5 & continue the uptrend or remain stable at least for the 2H of January.
MR Market Outlook – Next 5–7 Days
TC1/TC5 Continue to take the lead coming up 35 points week on week, we are already seeing MR rates following suit & should expect them to continue the uptrend or remain stable at least for the 2H of January. Far-east positions remains tight for the rest of January.
Market has probably priced in the risk earlier when Trump threatened military action in Iran. Now that it is easing or at least a softer stance, then the price comes off. Israel and the Arab nations also acting behind the scene to discourage Trump from military action.
With the supply glut, we’d say the recent oil price rise was moderate.
Uptick on the AG-Japan may be due to the unrest in Iran. From the latest news, it seems that the unrest has subsided and oil prices are settling in. The risk premium has been adjusted, and we might see a pushing down factor on the freight rate.
In Venezuela, the export cut is also reversing. Seems there will be more trade in the West Coast American basin. This might tighten the tonnage supply from the Far East.
OPEC projected the supply and demand will be near balance in 2026, this is good news considering previously we are expecting a global oil glut. Maybe the forecast also considers China to become a heavyweight crude oil importer which its import rose 17% in Dec 2025 compared to the previous year. For the coming weeks we might have a less risk premium on the freight but a more liquid demand. My crystal ball for the coming weeks is a flat slightly bullish market with the winter season still drives up the demand.
(Source: ICIS (Independent Commodity Intelligence Service) SEA’s Export Boom: How to Track the Effects on Chemicals Demand and Trade Flows – Asian Chemical Connections
Small Tankers Overview
The Southeast Asia and Far East markets remained broadly stable this week, though momentum has softened slightly. Intra-SEA activity continues to be driven by CPP spot demand, particularly on the SR segment, but this has not been enough to absorb the overall tonnage surplus, while chemical and palm trades remain subdued amid weaker regional export performance. Northbound sentiment stays weak with limited spot interest, as owners increasingly favour short-haul or westbound employment unless repositioning economics justify northbound runs. In the Far East, ongoing adverse weather and congestion have tightened prompt availability, especially for sub-8k dwt vessels ahead of the Lunar New Year, keeping freight steady despite operational disruptions. Southbound activity saw a modest pickup on blending components out of North China, while westbound enquiries for February improved slightly, supported by biofuel movements to Europe. Overall, freight levels across regions remain largely unchanged at last-done, with owners reluctant to concede further given already compressed returns.
Special Coverage
Europe cuts Russian oil price cap again from $47.60 a barrel to $44.10 a barrel.
The EU wants to lower Russian revenue in funding its war with Ukraine.
The Russian war with Ukraine has caused a security threat for the EU because the war is just in front of their doorstep. There are disruptions in trade, civil casualties and regional peace. AS a consequence, the EU is hoping Russia could back off from its war with lower revenue from crude oil.
Source: Euromaidan press https://euromaidanpress.com/2026/01/16/iran-oil-drop-eu-cuts-russia-price-cap
The US is a net exporter, so it is somewhat immune from the crude oil supply disruption. However, it still needs stability in the crude oil market otherwise there could be energy price inflation which will be disastrous for the US own people. If they are too aggressive in pressing Russia, there could be supply shocks for crude oil which inflate prices.
Rather than suppressing Russia via the price cap, the US is pressing via its enforcement arms OFAC (Office of Foreign Assets Control) which targets Russian related trade partners and institutions.
Lower price cap means less trading opportunities. Thus, there would be less employment for the mainstream legit tonnage especially in the Baltic. This would make some Owners run their way to other regions in search for vessel’s employment. Overall, it would be a lower freight rate due to more ships in the market.
Many European Ship Owners would haul its fleet to Far East, AG, and Africa to get more demand. This will pressure the freight rate down. However, there is unrest in Iran, which might spike the demand. We are expecting both pushing down and pulling up factors in the market. Overall freight market is flat and slightly bullish.
Bunker Recent Trend and Forecast:
Other insights: Honesty is the Best Policy
Industry dynamics revolves around relationships. Special arrangements can be made, albeit should not be taken for granted. For example, even though there is no advantage to charterers, vessel swaps can still be done provided owners come clean with an honest reason and commercially sound. The laycan extension might follow multiple times of vessel swapping, and the extension might result in more than one week delay over the original laycan.
Although Charterers’ accommodation was based on empathy and relationship, repeated occurrences might compromise reputations and future opportunities.