Could Multipolarism Save the Freight Market? In focus: the surging price of jet fuel.
Commentary
Could Multipolarism Save the Freight Market? In focus: the surging price of jet fuel.
OVERVIEW
Could Multipolarism Save the Freight Market?
Yes — and increasingly, it already is.
The global freight market is gradually transitioning away from a single-centre energy system into a more fragmented and multipolar trading environment. Rather than relying predominantly on Middle Eastern exports flowing eastward and westward through traditional routes, countries are now diversifying energy procurement, storage strategies, refining partnerships, and regional fuel-security arrangements.
This shift is becoming increasingly visible across the CPP, chemicals, and biofuel tanker markets.
Import-dependent economies are no longer relying solely on Gulf-origin barrels. Instead, refiners, traders, and governments are sourcing replacement cargoes from multiple regions including the United States Gulf, Mexico, Northwest Europe, China, Southeast Asia, and even intra-Asian redistribution flows.
Ironically, while geopolitical fragmentation increases uncertainty, it also creates longer tonne-mile demand, greater inefficiencies, regional stockpiling activity, and more fragmented cargo flows — all of which are structurally supportive for tanker freight.
In shipping terms, multipolarism does not necessarily mean lower trade. In many cases, it means more trade routes, longer voyages, and a broader diversification of cargo origins and destinations.
REAL EXAMPLES OF MULTIPOLARISM IMPACTING THE CPP, CHEMICALS & BIOFUELS MARKET
Mexico Fuel Oil Moving to Asia
One of the clearest examples emerged this week when a Suezmax tanker carried Mexican fuel oil into Singapore for the first time in nine months.
Traditionally, many Asian refiners relied heavily on Middle Eastern residual fuel streams. However, elevated Asian fuel prices and tightening Middle Eastern supply have now opened arbitrage opportunities for Latin American cargoes into Asia.
This represents a classic multipolar shift, longer voyage distances, and increased tonne-mile demand
ASEAN Fuel-Sharing and Regional Energy Security
Another significant example is ASEAN’s renewed push for regional fuel-sharing mechanisms under the ASEAN Petroleum Security Agreement (APSA).
Countries such as the Philippines, Vietnam, and Indonesia remain vulnerable to refined-product shortages due to limited refining capacity and relatively low strategic inventories. As a result, Southeast Asia is increasingly evolving into a regional balancing hub where cargoes may move dynamically between Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, and Vietnam depending on local shortages.
This creates more short-haul CPP redistribution trades, increased MR and small tanker utilisation and stronger regional storage economics.
Biofuel and Alternative Fuel Blending Flows
The biofuel market is also becoming increasingly multipolar.
Europe continues importing UCO, biodiesel feedstocks, methanol-related cargoes, and renewable blending components from Asia, the Americas, and the Middle East simultaneously. Meanwhile, Asian countries are accelerating domestic blending mandates to reduce reliance on imported fossil fuels.
This diversification has supported ARA-bound biodiesel flows and Southeast Asian palm-related cargoes.
JET FUEL PRICE & SUPPLY CRUNCH
One of the most critical developments currently unfolding is the tightening jet fuel market.
The spike in jet fuel margins skyrocketed amidst strong demand but low inventory and supply chain disruptions.
Southeast Asia has fewer options. It’s home to several budget carriers that didn’t hedge when crude prices were low, meaning they must now pay the market rate.
Several countries are employing strategies to counter the jet fuel shortage.
In the West, European jet fuel inventories at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub have reportedly fallen sharply toward multi-year lows just as peak summer travel demand approaches.
MR MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS
Sentiment East of Suez remains mixed, with short-haul intra-Asia trades continuing to face pressure from holiday disruptions and cautious chartering activity.
WORLD SCALE
27-Apr-26
28-Apr-26
29-Apr-26
7-DAYS AVERAGE
1-DAY CHANGE
7-DAYS CHANGE
7-DAYS-CHANGE
SPORE/JPN (30 KT)
332.5
330
327
337.13
-3
-25.5
-7.23%
SPORE/OZ (35 KT)
379
377.5
374.5
382.63
-3
-20.5
-5.19%
SK/OZ (35 KT)
385
385
385
391.56
0
-15
-3.75%
INDIA/JPN (35 KT)
315
350
350
322.50
0
40
12.90%
$1 = $1K
27-Apr-26
28-Apr-26
29-Apr-26
SPORE/HK
785
755
745
785.63
-10
-85
-10.24%
SK/SPORE
975
970
940
981.88
-30
-50
-5.05%
SK/JPN
685
685
660
690.63
-25
-35
-5.04%
SK/H.K.
790
790
790
800.00
0
-15
-1.86%
SK/USWC
2580
2580
2525
2,558.13
-55
25
1.00%
WORLD SCALE
27-Apr-26
28-Apr-26
29-Apr-26
AG/JPN (55 KT)
400
395
370
396.25
-25
-30
-7.50%
AG/JPN (75 KT)
385
380
355
381.25
-25
-30
-7.79%
Korea–USWC and selected westbound routes are expected to remain firmer relative to regional short-haul trades due to sustained arbitrage economics and ongoing dislocation in global clean-product balances.
A Malta-flagged tanker carrying approximately 1 million barrels of crude oil arrived off South Korea’s west coast on Friday after transiting the Strait of Hormuz in mid-April, according to HD Hyundai Oilbank. The cargo volume reportedly represents around 35–50% of South Korea’s daily crude oil consumption, highlighting the country’s continued reliance on Middle Eastern energy supplies. ~ Associated Press
The tanker, Odessa, reached waters near Seosan and is expected to berth at the refinery’s offshore mooring facility for discharge operations. The crude cargo will subsequently be processed into refined petroleum products including gasoline, diesel, and naphtha. HD Hyundai Oilbank added that its refining facilities have a processing capacity of up to 690,000 barrels per day.
Meanwhile, China’s resumption of refined-product exports into nearby Asian deficit markets is likely to have a differentiated impact across the MR freight market rather than lifting all routes uniformly.
Meanwhile, AG–Japan LR markets are showing signs of post-spike consolidation following the earlier geopolitical rally, although downside remains limited as the market continues pricing in persistent routing risks, insurance premiums, and supply-security concerns.
SMALL TANKERS MARKET UPDATE
The regional market remained soft this week, weighed down by weak cargo demand, holiday disruptions, and ongoing production cutbacks across Asia. In Southeast Asia, Intra-SEA sentiment weakened further as prompt 4–7k dwt tonnage built up despite continued CPP activity on short-sea and cross-harbour trades, while declining COA nominations and lower bunker prices placed mild downward pressure on freight. Northbound conditions stayed weak amid soft palm demand, constrained chemical supply, and difficulty securing return employment for vessels repositioning from the Far East. Intra-FEAST activity was subdued due to the Japan and China holiday period, though most cargoes had already been covered beforehand, leaving vessels opening mainly from end-May onward and freight broadly stable. Southbound flows also remained slow with limited fresh enquiry, although tight vessel availability persisted as more Far East owners repositioned southbound. Westbound demand into India stayed muted, while ARA-bound activity continued to outperform on steady biodiesel and caustic soda movements supported by elevated energy prices. Overall, freight levels across the region are holding around last-done, though softer fundamentals continue to weigh on sentiment.
REPORTED FIXTURES
VESSEL
SIZE
GRADE
L/C
LOAD
DISCHARGE
FREIGHT
CHTRS
VNR
10
ALKYLATE
13-May –
17-May
TAIWAN
STRAITS
$380K
CNR
VNR
12
ACIDS
15-May –
30-May
WCI
WCI
LOW-MID $300K
CNR
VNR
30
S.ACIDS
10-Jun –
20-Jun
MUNDRA
CHILE
LOW $90S PMT
CNR
ASPEN EXPRESS
35
CPP
17- May
MIZUSHIMA
OZ
WS370
AMPOL
NORD VANTAGE
35
CPP
19 – May
SPORE
OZ
WS355
BP
YASA LION
90
ULSD
24 – May
GIZAN
UKC
5.3M
ATC
GLOBAL BUNKER PRICE REPORT
MARKET WATCH
Shares of major product tanker operators including Hafnia, TORM, Scorpio Tankers, Ardmore Shipping, and Dampskibsselskabet Norden have generally remained relatively resilient amid ongoing market volatility, reflecting continued investor confidence in the medium-term outlook for CPP tanker earnings
News & Commentaries
Could Multipolarism Save the Freight Market? In focus: the surging price of jet fuel.
Could Multipolarism Save the Freight Market?
Yes — and increasingly, it already is.
The global freight market is gradually transitioning away from a single-centre energy system into a more fragmented and multipolar trading environment. Rather than relying predominantly on Middle Eastern exports flowing eastward and westward through traditional routes, countries are now diversifying energy procurement, storage strategies, refining partnerships, and regional fuel-security arrangements.
This shift is becoming increasingly visible across the CPP, chemicals, and biofuel tanker markets.
Import-dependent economies are no longer relying solely on Gulf-origin barrels. Instead, refiners, traders, and governments are sourcing replacement cargoes from multiple regions including the United States Gulf, Mexico, Northwest Europe, China, Southeast Asia, and even intra-Asian redistribution flows.
Ironically, while geopolitical fragmentation increases uncertainty, it also creates longer tonne-mile demand, greater inefficiencies, regional stockpiling activity, and more fragmented cargo flows — all of which are structurally supportive for tanker freight.
In shipping terms, multipolarism does not necessarily mean lower trade. In many cases, it means more trade routes, longer voyages, and a broader diversification of cargo origins and destinations.
REAL EXAMPLES OF MULTIPOLARISM IMPACTING THE CPP, CHEMICALS & BIOFUELS MARKET
One of the clearest examples emerged this week when a Suezmax tanker carried Mexican fuel oil into Singapore for the first time in nine months.
Traditionally, many Asian refiners relied heavily on Middle Eastern residual fuel streams. However, elevated Asian fuel prices and tightening Middle Eastern supply have now opened arbitrage opportunities for Latin American cargoes into Asia.
This represents a classic multipolar shift, longer voyage distances, and increased tonne-mile demand
Another significant example is ASEAN’s renewed push for regional fuel-sharing mechanisms under the ASEAN Petroleum Security Agreement (APSA).
Countries such as the Philippines, Vietnam, and Indonesia remain vulnerable to refined-product shortages due to limited refining capacity and relatively low strategic inventories. As a result, Southeast Asia is increasingly evolving into a regional balancing hub where cargoes may move dynamically between Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, and Vietnam depending on local shortages.
This creates more short-haul CPP redistribution trades, increased MR and small tanker utilisation and stronger regional storage economics.
The biofuel market is also becoming increasingly multipolar.
Europe continues importing UCO, biodiesel feedstocks, methanol-related cargoes, and renewable blending components from Asia, the Americas, and the Middle East simultaneously. Meanwhile, Asian countries are accelerating domestic blending mandates to reduce reliance on imported fossil fuels.
This diversification has supported ARA-bound biodiesel flows and Southeast Asian palm-related cargoes.
JET FUEL PRICE & SUPPLY CRUNCH
One of the most critical developments currently unfolding is the tightening jet fuel market.
The spike in jet fuel margins skyrocketed amidst strong demand but low inventory and supply chain disruptions.
Southeast Asia has fewer options. It’s home to several budget carriers that didn’t hedge when crude prices were low, meaning they must now pay the market rate.
Several countries are employing strategies to counter the jet fuel shortage.
In the West, European jet fuel inventories at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub have reportedly fallen sharply toward multi-year lows just as peak summer travel demand approaches.
Sentiment East of Suez remains mixed, with short-haul intra-Asia trades continuing to face pressure from holiday disruptions and cautious chartering activity.
Korea–USWC and selected westbound routes are expected to remain firmer relative to regional short-haul trades due to sustained arbitrage economics and ongoing dislocation in global clean-product balances.
A Malta-flagged tanker carrying approximately 1 million barrels of crude oil arrived off South Korea’s west coast on Friday after transiting the Strait of Hormuz in mid-April, according to HD Hyundai Oilbank. The cargo volume reportedly represents around 35–50% of South Korea’s daily crude oil consumption, highlighting the country’s continued reliance on Middle Eastern energy supplies. ~ Associated Press
The tanker, Odessa, reached waters near Seosan and is expected to berth at the refinery’s offshore mooring facility for discharge operations. The crude cargo will subsequently be processed into refined petroleum products including gasoline, diesel, and naphtha. HD Hyundai Oilbank added that its refining facilities have a processing capacity of up to 690,000 barrels per day.
Meanwhile, China’s resumption of refined-product exports into nearby Asian deficit markets is likely to have a differentiated impact across the MR freight market rather than lifting all routes uniformly.
Meanwhile, AG–Japan LR markets are showing signs of post-spike consolidation following the earlier geopolitical rally, although downside remains limited as the market continues pricing in persistent routing risks, insurance premiums, and supply-security concerns.
The regional market remained soft this week, weighed down by weak cargo demand, holiday disruptions, and ongoing production cutbacks across Asia. In Southeast Asia, Intra-SEA sentiment weakened further as prompt 4–7k dwt tonnage built up despite continued CPP activity on short-sea and cross-harbour trades, while declining COA nominations and lower bunker prices placed mild downward pressure on freight. Northbound conditions stayed weak amid soft palm demand, constrained chemical supply, and difficulty securing return employment for vessels repositioning from the Far East. Intra-FEAST activity was subdued due to the Japan and China holiday period, though most cargoes had already been covered beforehand, leaving vessels opening mainly from end-May onward and freight broadly stable. Southbound flows also remained slow with limited fresh enquiry, although tight vessel availability persisted as more Far East owners repositioned southbound. Westbound demand into India stayed muted, while ARA-bound activity continued to outperform on steady biodiesel and caustic soda movements supported by elevated energy prices. Overall, freight levels across the region are holding around last-done, though softer fundamentals continue to weigh on sentiment.
13-May –
17-May
15-May –
30-May
10-Jun –
20-Jun
CNR
ATC
Shares of major product tanker operators including Hafnia, TORM, Scorpio Tankers, Ardmore Shipping, and Dampskibsselskabet Norden have generally remained relatively resilient amid ongoing market volatility, reflecting continued investor confidence in the medium-term outlook for CPP tanker earnings