February continues to be under the gloom of weak arbitrage cracks, over tonnage, seasonal slump, and macroeconomics factors. Rates have been soft across the board and we should see continuation of this trend going into the Lunar New Year.
Commentary
February continues to be under the gloom of weak arbitrage cracks, over tonnage, seasonal slump, and macroeconomics factors. Rates have been soft across the board and we should see continuation of this trend going into the Lunar New Year.
OVERVIEW
February continues to be under the gloom of weak arbitrage cracks, over tonnage, seasonal slump, and macroeconomics factors. Demand was not able to keep up with the vessel surplus in the market. Rates have been soft across the board and we should see continuation of this trend going into the lunar New Year next week as the major markets like China/Korea/Singapore closes for business. The remaining 2nd half of February should be as quiet as it gets and may only expect market to pick up end of the month if any.
OPEC+ production forecast not as steep as anticipated. This might provide support for the oil price and freight market.
Opec+, which supplies roughly 40 per cent of global crude, remains the key stabilising force in the oil market. Opec remains optimistic about 2026 demand and is expected to maintain tighter market conditions during the April–September peak-consumption period to keep Brent near $70, supporting member-state revenues. This strategy may conflict with US interests, as lower oil prices would help ease inflationary pressures. (Source: Business Standard)
For the product market, naphtha seems to be one of the front runners. There is still projected demand for naphtha which is propelled by industrialization of emerging economies and production of more environmentally friendly naphtha products. Petrochemical feedstocks and gasoline blending are also key catalysts of the growing demand. Reported major players are BP, Exxon, Chevron, Reliance. Lotte Chemical and Sinopec.
Apart the product market, it is worthwhile to glean on the crude distillation unit (CDU) activities especially in Asia. China is leading the CDU new built and expansion in Asia. The refineries utilization is an indicator for export and reserves strategies that move the market especially the North Asia short haul trend. China is building oil reserve sites at a rapid speed to boost crude stockpiles that increased in urgency after Russia’s Ukraine invasion upended global energy flows
Source : Sweetcrudereports.com (click here to read more)
In sustainability sector, our lenses are directed towards Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF). Currently SAF price is around 8x higher than conventional jet fuel. The net zero emission advocators are expecting SAF to eventually comes to economies of scale which will fulfill the global jet demand before 2050.
Trend: Prices increased across all major bunkering hubs over the period. Singapore, Fujairah, Rotterdam, and Houston all ended 12 Feb higher than on 04 Feb, with steady gains particularly toward the second half of the week.
7-day change: The global average increased by approximately USD +13.5/mt on a 7-day basis.
Interpretation: The broad-based increase across all regions indicates firm week-on-week momentum. Rotterdam recorded a slightly weaker daily close (-2.0 USD/mt 1-day change), but overall weekly gains were consistent across hubs. On a global basis, VLSFO showed stronger weekly performance than MGO (+13.5 vs +6.0 USD/mt) and was broadly in line with HSFO (+13.0 USD/mt).
Marine Gas Oil (MGO)
Trend: Price movements were mixed across regions. Singapore and Houston ended the period higher than at the start, while Fujairah and Rotterdam recorded week-on-week declines. Overall movements were uneven.
7-day change: The Global Market MGO price increased by USD +6.0/mt on a 7-day basis.
Interpretation: The global increase was moderate and smaller compared with VLSFO and HSFO. Regional divergence was evident, with Fujairah showing a weekly decline (-8.5 USD/mt) and Rotterdam also lower (-4.5 USD/mt), indicating that MGO strength was not uniform across hubs during the period.
Intermediate Fuel Oil (IFO 380 / HSFO)
Trend: Prices increased across all major hubs. Singapore, Fujairah, Rotterdam, and Houston all closed higher on 12 Feb compared with 04 Feb, with relatively consistent upward movement through the week.
7-day change: The Global Market HSFO price increased by USD +13.0/mt on a 7-day basis.
Interpretation: HSFO recorded a solid weekly increase, broadly matching VLSFO performance (+13.0 vs +13.5 USD/mt) and outperforming MGO (+6.0 USD/mt). Gains were relatively consistent across hubs, with no region showing a weekly decline, indicating stable upward momentum during the period.
News & Commentaries
February continues to be under the gloom of weak arbitrage cracks, over tonnage, seasonal slump, and macroeconomics factors. Rates have been soft across the board and we should see continuation of this trend going into the Lunar New Year.
February continues to be under the gloom of weak arbitrage cracks, over tonnage, seasonal slump, and macroeconomics factors. Demand was not able to keep up with the vessel surplus in the market. Rates have been soft across the board and we should see continuation of this trend going into the lunar New Year next week as the major markets like China/Korea/Singapore closes for business. The remaining 2nd half of February should be as quiet as it gets and may only expect market to pick up end of the month if any.
OPEC+ production forecast not as steep as anticipated. This might provide support for the oil price and freight market.
(Click here to read more)
Opec+, which supplies roughly 40 per cent of global crude, remains the key stabilising force in the oil market. Opec remains optimistic about 2026 demand and is expected to maintain tighter market conditions during the April–September peak-consumption period to keep Brent near $70, supporting member-state revenues. This strategy may conflict with US interests, as lower oil prices would help ease inflationary pressures. (Source: Business Standard)
For the product market, naphtha seems to be one of the front runners. There is still projected demand for naphtha which is propelled by industrialization of emerging economies and production of more environmentally friendly naphtha products. Petrochemical feedstocks and gasoline blending are also key catalysts of the growing demand. Reported major players are BP, Exxon, Chevron, Reliance. Lotte Chemical and Sinopec.
Source: imarcgroup.com
(click here to read more)
Apart the product market, it is worthwhile to glean on the crude distillation unit (CDU) activities especially in Asia. China is leading the CDU new built and expansion in Asia. The refineries utilization is an indicator for export and reserves strategies that move the market especially the North Asia short haul trend. China is building oil reserve sites at a rapid speed to boost crude stockpiles that increased in urgency after Russia’s Ukraine invasion upended global energy flows
Source : Sweetcrudereports.com
(click here to read more)
In sustainability sector, our lenses are directed towards Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF). Currently SAF price is around 8x higher than conventional jet fuel. The net zero emission advocators are expecting SAF to eventually comes to economies of scale which will fulfill the global jet demand before 2050.
(Click here to read more)