The Venezuela crisis should see gold and USD price up. Oil not exactly reacting yet
Commentary
The Venezuela crisis should see gold and USD price up. Oil not exactly reacting yet
2025 saw bunker prices gradually decrease throughout the year, and MR/LR product tanker freight remained weak in the second half of the year. Oil prices remain uncertain for 2026, but major producers are likely to increase supply even with modest demand growth, potentially resulting in another surplus year. Bunker prices could continue to decline if the oil supply surplus persists, though freight may see some de-correlation with bunker prices as sporadic demand for tankers continues, likely extending into the first months of 2026.
Bunker Recent Trend and Forecast for Early 2026:
VLSFO 0.5
VLSFO pricing shows sideways to slightly downward trend in late 2025.
Shipowners finding VLSFO oversupplied and less in demand versus alternatives in certain regions.
New Emissions Control Areas (like Mediterranean ECA) reduce VLSFO consumption in favor of lower sulphur grades.
Forecast for early 2026: Global VLSFO prices potentially dropping below levels not seen since 2020 in 2026. This is driven by oversupply and global economic weakness.
MGO
More volatile and generally higher than VLSFO.
Some increases mid-Dec, but later reports show mixed to slight softening.
Emissions control zones (ECAs) are pushing demand for MGO and ultra-low sulphur fuels versus VLSFO.
Supply has tightened at times in Europe due to ECA demand.
Demand for MGO remains relatively strong due to emissions compliance needs, but price peaks can soften if crude oil weakens or supply increases.
Forecast for early 2026: even if crude softens, MGO may remain relatively firm due to regulatory demand in controlled areas (Mediterranean, EU, US, etc.)
IFO 380 (HSFO)
HSFO price trend has been relatively flat to slightly lower, supported by niche use by scrubber-equipped vessels but not strong demand growth.
Forecast for early 2026: with VLSFO dwindling in share and MGO/ULSFO gaining, HSFO may see flat to mild decline.
Bunker Market and Supply-Demand Trends
Bunker markets predicted soft demand growth into 2026, especially VLSFO. Singapore bunker sales data show small volume increases, but VLSFO share has slipped, while HSFO & distillates gain some share. Global marine fuel demand patterns may see a shift towards lower-sulphur fuel oil (ULSFO) and MGO in ECAs.
Outlook on Oil prices (crude base)
Forecasts suggest crude oil prices softening into 2026 due to oversupply, weak global growth, and expanded production.
Lower crude feedstocks typically feed into lower bunker fuel prices.
Bunker Report Summary
VLSFO
Recent trend: flat to slightly down
Early 2026 forecast: lower and weaker prices
MGO
Recent trend: moderately firm
Early 2026 forecast: stable to firm pricing
IFO 380
Recent trend: flat to slightly weaker
Early 2026 forecast: Stable/soft downward.
Overall: Despite short-term rebounds, longer-term pressure on bunker prices is expected in 2026, especially for VLSFO, due to oversupply, weak global growth, and shifting fuel demand toward lower sulphur grades.
News & Commentaries
The Venezuela crisis should see gold and USD price up. Oil not exactly reacting yet
2025 saw bunker prices gradually decrease throughout the year, and MR/LR product tanker freight remained weak in the second half of the year. Oil prices remain uncertain for 2026, but major producers are likely to increase supply even with modest demand growth, potentially resulting in another surplus year. Bunker prices could continue to decline if the oil supply surplus persists, though freight may see some de-correlation with bunker prices as sporadic demand for tankers continues, likely extending into the first months of 2026.
Bunker Recent Trend and Forecast for Early 2026:
VLSFO 0.5
VLSFO pricing shows sideways to slightly downward trend in late 2025.
Shipowners finding VLSFO oversupplied and less in demand versus alternatives in certain regions.
New Emissions Control Areas (like Mediterranean ECA) reduce VLSFO consumption in favor of lower sulphur grades.
Forecast for early 2026: Global VLSFO prices potentially dropping below levels not seen since 2020 in 2026. This is driven by oversupply and global economic weakness.
MGO
More volatile and generally higher than VLSFO.
Some increases mid-Dec, but later reports show mixed to slight softening.
Emissions control zones (ECAs) are pushing demand for MGO and ultra-low sulphur fuels versus VLSFO.
Supply has tightened at times in Europe due to ECA demand.
Demand for MGO remains relatively strong due to emissions compliance needs, but price peaks can soften if crude oil weakens or supply increases.
Forecast for early 2026: even if crude softens, MGO may remain relatively firm due to regulatory demand in controlled areas (Mediterranean, EU, US, etc.)
IFO 380 (HSFO)
HSFO price trend has been relatively flat to slightly lower, supported by niche use by scrubber-equipped vessels but not strong demand growth.
Forecast for early 2026: with VLSFO dwindling in share and MGO/ULSFO gaining, HSFO may see flat to mild decline.
Bunker Market and Supply-Demand Trends
Bunker markets predicted soft demand growth into 2026, especially VLSFO.
Singapore bunker sales data show small volume increases, but VLSFO share has slipped, while HSFO & distillates gain some share.
Global marine fuel demand patterns may see a shift towards lower-sulphur fuel oil (ULSFO) and MGO in ECAs.
Outlook on Oil prices (crude base)
Forecasts suggest crude oil prices softening into 2026 due to oversupply, weak global growth, and expanded production.
Lower crude feedstocks typically feed into lower bunker fuel prices.
Bunker Report Summary
VLSFO
Recent trend: flat to slightly down
Early 2026 forecast: lower and weaker prices
MGO
Recent trend: moderately firm
Early 2026 forecast: stable to firm pricing
IFO 380
Recent trend: flat to slightly weaker
Early 2026 forecast: Stable/soft downward.
Overall: Despite short-term rebounds, longer-term pressure on bunker prices is expected in 2026, especially for VLSFO, due to oversupply, weak global growth, and shifting fuel demand toward lower sulphur grades.