What Happens After Hormuz Reopening and Peace Treaty Signed?
Commentary
What Happens After Hormuz Reopening and Peace Treaty Signed?
OVERVIEW
What Happens After Hormuz Reopening and Peace Treaty Signed?
Newbuilding and S&P markets will spike with the upswing in spot rates. Charterers will also rush to lock in rates with TCs and COAs and feed into the frenzy. The peace treaty is scheduled to be signed this Friday, overall bullish if no further conflicts.
As the world is watching warily for Hormuz reopening, what could be the other impacts to the shipping industry?
Ship Owners’ who positioned their tankers outside the Hormus will enjoy the fruits of waiting.
There are about 127 oil tankers currently inside the Persian Gulf, according to Signal Maritime data, Dozens of others have positioned themselves near the strait, to be ready to take advantage of a surge in demand if traffic resumes.
In the event of a resumption of regular flows, it would spell a sudden flood of oil back onto the market as barrels that have been trapped in the Persian Gulf since the start of the war escape. Industry bodies have warned that extreme levels of traffic in Hormuz would raise the risk of crashes and ships running aground.
Even without a peace deal, there have been growing signs that significant volumes of oil are flowing through the strait in tankers with their signals switched off, including with assistance from the US military. In the even of reopening, tankers positioned outside Hormuz could benefit from being among the first vessels available to lift delayed cargoes once normal traffic resumes.
Shipping stocks could experience a short-term rally
Shipping investors should be looking first at tanker, LPG and dry bulk stocks if an agreement leads to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. These sectors stand to benefit most from a combination of pent-up cargo demand, vessel repositioning and improving macroeconomic sentiment. Lower oil prices will propel more supported net earnings.
Source: markets.businessinsider.com
Weeks of disruption have created substantial pent-up demand while forcing shipowners and charterers to reposition vessels away from traditional trading patterns. Hormuz reopening will be a homecoming for the lost tonne-miles before the beginning of the war. Shipping stocks could experience a short-term rally as investors price in the reopening of trade flows and improved market sentiment.
However, if Hormuz reopens, potential losers are: emergency storage plays , floating storage operators, certain long-haul tonne-mile traders, and speculative freight positions.
Reopening of Hormuz may reduce the urgency for broad Russian oil waivers, although future sanctions policy remains highly dependent on geopolitical developments
The US introduced a temporary sanctions waiver on Russian oil, allowing shipments already at sea to be delivered under defined conditions. The measure motivated by a need to stabilise global oil markets amid supply disruptions and rising prices linked to tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said future waivers allowing countries to purchase oil from Russia could be granted on a country-by-country basis rather than across the board. If the Straits reopens, the US might reimpose sanction on Russia in a bid to oppose the war in Ukraine.
Alternative rutes will be ramped up, such as the UAE Pipeline and the controversial Kra Kanal
Alternative rutes will be ramped up, such as the UAE Pipeline and the controversial Kra Kanal
Kuwait looks to bypass Hormuz by routing oil through Saudi, UAE pipelines as UAE plans to complete second oil pipeline bypassing strait of Hormuz by 2027,
The long-debated Kra Canal project could offer a new maritime shortcut between the Andaman Sea and the Gulf of Thailand, but technical, environmental and geopolitical hurdles persist. The project is estimated to cost $28 billion. The Kanal would create a new waterway linking the Andaman Sea with the Gulf of Thailand, offering an alternative to the congested Strait of Malacca and potentially shortening key shipping routes by more than twelve hundred kilometres. This will boost Thailand’s role in global trade, infrastructure and trade routes diversification.
More aggressive diversification to renewables energy
Several South-east Asian countries have incorporated biodiesel blending into their transport fuel systems.
Indonesia, the world’s largest palm oil producer, began implementing its nationwide B40 programme in 2025, requiring diesel fuel to contain 40 per cent biodiesel. From a resilience perspective, biodiesel’s value lies not in eliminating exposure to global markets, but in reducing reliance on a single supply chain.
Singapore is also home to one of the world’s largest renewable diesel production facilities, and has seen growing activity in marine biofuel bunkering. Even after Hormuz reopening, the biofuel sector will still have rapid development projects and will be produced at more scale.
Trade will gradually cover more routes instead of relying on traditional patterns such as Hormuz.
The trade imbalance caused by the Iran War serves as an impetus to diversify on shipping routes such as Transpacific route, North Sea-Baltic Sea Route, Straits of Malacca, Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Transatlantic route, and even the Arctic route. Reopening Straits of Hormuz allows the shipping trade to play in familiar ground, but the need of diversification would still be in the top list as a hedge of Hormuz reclosure.
Aviation and the fertilizer industry will enjoy the bull run.
Strait of Hormuz conflict triggered global air travel turmoil and fertilizer shortage. If the Strait of Hormuz is reopens again, there would be a possibility of rapid tourism rebound and stabilization of fertilizer supply. India, the world’s largest urea importer, drew prices that were less than half of an April tender, a sign that the global fertilizer supply strain from the war in Iran is starting to ease.
MR MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS
Despite the escalation of Middle East tensions over the past week, freight levels have remained steady, reflecting the market’s growing resilience to geopolitical developments. An oversupply of tonnage continues to outpace cargo demand across both the AG and Asian markets, limiting any meaningful upside in freight rates.
WORLD SCALE
9-Jun-26
10-Jun-26
11-Jun-26
7-DAYS AVERAGE
1-DAY CHANGE
7-DAYS CHANGE
7-DAYS- CHANGE
SPORE/JPN (30 KT)
244
240
240
244.25
0
-9
-3.61%
SPORE/OZ (35 KT)
290
285
285
291.88
0
-12.5
-4.20%
KOREA /OZ (35 KT)
290
283
280
293.56
-3
-22.5
-7.44%
INDIA/JAPAN (35 KT)
210
210
190
215.00
-20
-35
-15.56%
$1 = $1K
9-Jun-26
10-Jun-26
11-Jun-26
SPORE/HK
590
580
580
596.88
0
-30
-4.92%
KOREA/SPORE
680
670
660
685.63
-10
-45
-6.38%
KOREA/JAPAN
450
445
440
455.00
-5
-25
-5.38%
KOREA/H.K.
580
580
570
581.25
-10
-20
-3.39%
KOREA/USWC
2,000
2,000
2,000
2,036
0
-70
-3.38%
WORLD SCALE
9-Jun-26
10-Jun-26
11-Jun-26
AG/JAPAN (55 KT)
295
300
305
292.50
5
20
7.02%
AG/JAPAN (75 KT)
260
270
280
258.13
10
35
14.29%
Looking ahead, rates are expected to remain under gradual downward pressure as vessel supply continues to exceed demand. This outlook is likely to persist provided US-Iran tensions remain contained and do not materially disrupt regional oil prices or trade flows.
While reopening would support trade normalization, freight markets may not necessarily rise immediately. The release of previously trapped tonnage and normalization of routing patterns could temporarily increase vessel availability and cap freight gains.
SMALL TANKERS MARKET UPDATE
Intra-SEA market remains dull, with limited activity seen across chemicals and palm-related cargoes, while most movement continues to be supported by CPP volumes. Some small chemical parcels were noted, including 1–1.5kt toluene ex-Singapore to Godau, which attracted interest from a handful of owners; however, such limited volumes are insufficient to absorb the growing list of prompt tonnage in the region. Freight levels are broadly holding around last-done levels, though pressure remains evident, with some owners prepared to offer deeper discounts in order to secure employment. Northbound and Westbound SEA were largely limited to 12kt aromatics cargoes to Fareast for June loading and 10–12kt palm oil parcels to Fareast and India for June/July dates, where suitable tonnage remains relatively tight. Despite this pocket of demand, freight levels continue to hold around last-done levels with little upward momentum.
For the Far East, the Southbound market continues to be supported by a steady flow of chemical enquiries, with acids, caustic soda, aromatics, blending components and other specialty products remaining active across the region. Demand has started to extend beyond prompt requirements, with fresh July interest emerging alongside several uncovered June stems. Although trading sentiment remains cautious amid thin margins and firm negotiations, cargo activity has been sufficient to keep owners relatively firm on freight ideas. Overall, freight levels remain broadly stable, though owners continue to factor in persistent Straits congestion and the weak Southeast Asia cargo outlook when deciding whether to commit southbound.
Overall, the regional market remains soft overall, with weak cargo demand and growing tonnage availability weighing on sentiment.
REPORTED FIXTURES
VESSEL
SIZE
GRADE
L/C
LOAD
DISCHARGE
FREIGHT
CHTRS
VNR
10
POME+ SBEO
25 Jun – 30 Jun
STRAITS
ARA
$130PMT
CNR
VNR
15
PALMS
1 Jul – 15 Jul
STRAITS
SOUTH CHINA
MID-HIGH $30S
CNR
STENA CONVOY
35
CPP
22 Jun
KOREA
OZ
WS280
AMPOL
LARGO EAGLE
35
CPP
24 Jun
KOREA
GUAM-SAIPAN
900K (1:2)
EXXON
PLATYERA
35
ULSD
29 Jun
SIKKA
EAFR – SAFR
WS250-WS240
ST
GLOBAL BUNKER PRICE REPORT
VLSFO:
Trend
VLSFO prices generally moved lower during the week across most major bunkering hubs. Singapore declined from USD 804.5/MT to USD 748.5/MT, while Rotterdam and Houston also recorded notable decreases. Fujairah remained relatively resilient and ended the week slightly higher compared to the beginning of the period. The Global Market average fell from USD 864.5/MT to USD 820.0/MT
7-day change
Over the past seven days, VLSFO declined by USD 56.0/MT in Singapore, USD 44.5/MT in Rotterdam, and USD 56.5/MT in Houston. Fujairah was the only major hub to record an increase, rising by USD 28.0/MT. The Global Market average decreased by USD 44.5/MT.
VLSFO prices moved lower across most major bunkering hubs during the week. Despite the decline, market fundamentals remain relatively supportive as oil product inventories in Singapore continue to stay at historically low levels amid ongoing supply disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict.
MGO
Trend
MGO prices moved lower across all major bunkering hubs during the week. Singapore declined from USD 1,163.0/MT to USD 1,105.0/MT, while Rotterdam and Houston recorded even steeper losses. Fujairah also moved lower, although the decline was less severe than in the Atlantic hubs. The Global Market average decreased from USD 1,342.5/MT to USD 1,258.0/MT.
7-day change
MGO fell by USD 58.0/MT in Singapore, USD 47.0/MT in Fujairah, USD 90.5/MT in Rotterdam, and USD 88.5/MT in Houston. The Global Market average declined by USD 84.5/MT over the seven-day period.
MGO recorded the largest weekly decline among the main bunker grades. However, middle distillate inventories in Singapore remain relatively tight, with diesel and jet fuel stocks staying near recent lows. This suggests that underlying supply conditions remain firm despite the recent price correction.
HSFO (IFO 380)
Trend
HSFO prices also weakened during the week, although the declines were generally less severe than those seen in MGO. Singapore fell from USD 663.5/MT to USD 605.5/MT, while Fujairah, Rotterdam, and Houston all ended the week lower as well. The Global Market average declined from USD 736.5/MT to USD 682.5/MT.
7-day change
HSFO decreased by USD 58.0/MT in Singapore, USD 50.5/MT in Fujairah, USD 55.5/MT in Rotterdam, and USD 23.0/MT in Houston. The Global Market average recorded a decline of USD 54.0/MT.
HSFO prices weakened during the week, although market fundamentals remain supported by low residual fuel inventories in Singapore. Continued uncertainty surrounding Middle East supply flows may keep the market sensitive to further disruptions despite the recent decline in prices.
MARKET WATCH
The stocks of major MR tanker players experienced a slight upswing last week. Scorpio is said to have opted for term charters for two of its new MR vessels in strengthening freight markets. Meanwhile, Hafnia is pulling out of LR2 and handy size tanker pool operations due to a change in its fleet make-up. Hafnia also continues to gain from its investment in rival Torm, while keeping a merger on the table.
The market continues to adjust pricing the risk while being alert to the confirmation of the US-Iran agreement signing and opening of Hormuz.
SOURCES
TradeWinds. (2026). Three shipping winners and one loser if the Strait of Hormuz reopens.
Bloomberg. (2026). Shipowners on edge for news on Hormuz as Iran deal inches closer.
The Business Times. (2026). Alternative diesel can help Singapore balance resilience and decarbonisation.
The Business Times. (2026). Iran signals no deal will be signed within Trump’s proposed timeline.
Thai Times. (2026). Thailand’s US$28 billion mega-canal proposal revives ambition to redesign global shipping routes.
Bloomberg. (2026). US could offer country-specific waivers for Russian oil, says Bessent.
Sanctions Russia. (2026). US sanctions waiver on Russian oil.
Maritime Education. 12 Major Sea Routes of the World: Lifelines of Global Transportation and Trade.
Bloomberg. (2026). India fertilizer offers fall in sign of improving global supply.
Hormuz Monitor. (2026). Live ship traffic and vessel monitoring data.
MSN News India. (2026). Kuwait looks to bypass Hormuz by routing oil through Saudi and UAE pipelines.
The Guardian. (2026). UAE oil pipeline expansion aims to reduce Strait of Hormuz dependency by 2027.
Solidarität. (2016). Strategic transport corridors and alternative trade routes.
Naucher. (2025). Biofuel White Paper 2025.
S&P Global Commodity Insights (Platts). Freight assessments, tanker market intelligence and shipping data, accessed June 2026.
Business Insider, Oil (Brent) price, accessed June 2026.
News & Commentaries
What Happens After Hormuz Reopening and Peace Treaty Signed?
What Happens After Hormuz Reopening and Peace Treaty Signed?
Newbuilding and S&P markets will spike with the upswing in spot rates. Charterers will also rush to lock in rates with TCs and COAs and feed into the frenzy. The peace treaty is scheduled to be signed this Friday, overall bullish if no further conflicts.
As the world is watching warily for Hormuz reopening, what could be the other impacts to the shipping industry?
Ship Owners’ who positioned their tankers outside the Hormus will enjoy the fruits of waiting.
There are about 127 oil tankers currently inside the Persian Gulf, according to Signal Maritime data, Dozens of others have positioned themselves near the strait, to be ready to take advantage of a surge in demand if traffic resumes.
In the event of a resumption of regular flows, it would spell a sudden flood of oil back onto the market as barrels that have been trapped in the Persian Gulf since the start of the war escape. Industry bodies have warned that extreme levels of traffic in Hormuz would raise the risk of crashes and ships running aground.
Even without a peace deal, there have been growing signs that significant volumes of oil are flowing through the strait in tankers with their signals switched off, including with assistance from the US military. In the even of reopening, tankers positioned outside Hormuz could benefit from being among the first vessels available to lift delayed cargoes once normal traffic resumes.
Shipping stocks could experience a short-term rally
Shipping investors should be looking first at tanker, LPG and dry bulk stocks if an agreement leads to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. These sectors stand to benefit most from a combination of pent-up cargo demand, vessel repositioning and improving macroeconomic sentiment. Lower oil prices will propel more supported net earnings.
Source: markets.businessinsider.com
Weeks of disruption have created substantial pent-up demand while forcing shipowners and charterers to reposition vessels away from traditional trading patterns. Hormuz reopening will be a homecoming for the lost tonne-miles before the beginning of the war. Shipping stocks could experience a short-term rally as investors price in the reopening of trade flows and improved market sentiment.
However, if Hormuz reopens, potential losers are: emergency storage plays , floating storage operators, certain long-haul tonne-mile traders, and speculative freight positions.
Reopening of Hormuz may reduce the urgency for broad Russian oil waivers, although future sanctions policy remains highly dependent on geopolitical developments
The US introduced a temporary sanctions waiver on Russian oil, allowing shipments already at sea to be delivered under defined conditions. The measure motivated by a need to stabilise global oil markets amid supply disruptions and rising prices linked to tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said future waivers allowing countries to purchase oil from Russia could be granted on a country-by-country basis rather than across the board. If the Straits reopens, the US might reimpose sanction on Russia in a bid to oppose the war in Ukraine.
Alternative rutes will be ramped up, such as the UAE Pipeline and the controversial Kra Kanal
Alternative rutes will be ramped up, such as the UAE Pipeline and the controversial Kra Kanal
Kuwait looks to bypass Hormuz by routing oil through Saudi, UAE pipelines as UAE plans to complete second oil pipeline bypassing strait of Hormuz by 2027,
The long-debated Kra Canal project could offer a new maritime shortcut between the Andaman Sea and the Gulf of Thailand, but technical, environmental and geopolitical hurdles persist. The project is estimated to cost $28 billion.
The Kanal would create a new waterway linking the Andaman Sea with the Gulf of Thailand, offering an alternative to the congested Strait of Malacca and potentially shortening key shipping routes by more than twelve hundred kilometres. This will boost Thailand’s role in global trade, infrastructure and trade routes diversification.
More aggressive diversification to renewables energy
Several South-east Asian countries have incorporated biodiesel blending into their transport fuel systems.
Indonesia, the world’s largest palm oil producer, began implementing its nationwide B40 programme in 2025, requiring diesel fuel to contain 40 per cent biodiesel. From a resilience perspective, biodiesel’s value lies not in eliminating exposure to global markets, but in reducing reliance on a single supply chain.
Singapore is also home to one of the world’s largest renewable diesel production facilities, and has seen growing activity in marine biofuel bunkering. Even after Hormuz reopening, the biofuel sector will still have rapid development projects and will be produced at more scale.
Trade will gradually cover more routes instead of relying on traditional patterns such as Hormuz.
The trade imbalance caused by the Iran War serves as an impetus to diversify on shipping routes such as Transpacific route, North Sea-Baltic Sea Route, Straits of Malacca, Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Transatlantic route, and even the Arctic route. Reopening Straits of Hormuz allows the shipping trade to play in familiar ground, but the need of diversification would still be in the top list as a hedge of Hormuz reclosure.
Aviation and the fertilizer industry will enjoy the bull run.
Strait of Hormuz conflict triggered global air travel turmoil and fertilizer shortage. If the Strait of Hormuz is reopens again, there would be a possibility of rapid tourism rebound and stabilization of fertilizer supply. India, the world’s largest urea importer, drew prices that were less than half of an April tender, a sign that the global fertilizer supply strain from the war in Iran is starting to ease.
Despite the escalation of Middle East tensions over the past week, freight levels have remained steady, reflecting the market’s growing resilience to geopolitical developments. An oversupply of tonnage continues to outpace cargo demand across both the AG and Asian markets, limiting any meaningful upside in freight rates.
AVERAGE
CHANGE
CHANGE
CHANGE
Looking ahead, rates are expected to remain under gradual downward pressure as vessel supply continues to exceed demand. This outlook is likely to persist provided US-Iran tensions remain contained and do not materially disrupt regional oil prices or trade flows.
While reopening would support trade normalization, freight markets may not necessarily rise immediately. The release of previously trapped tonnage and normalization of routing patterns could temporarily increase vessel availability and cap freight gains.
SBEO
30 Jun
15 Jul
VLSFO:
VLSFO prices generally moved lower during the week across most major bunkering hubs. Singapore declined from USD 804.5/MT to USD 748.5/MT, while Rotterdam and Houston also recorded notable decreases. Fujairah remained relatively resilient and ended the week slightly higher compared to the beginning of the period. The Global Market average fell from USD 864.5/MT to USD 820.0/MT
Over the past seven days, VLSFO declined by USD 56.0/MT in Singapore, USD 44.5/MT in Rotterdam, and USD 56.5/MT in Houston. Fujairah was the only major hub to record an increase, rising by USD 28.0/MT. The Global Market average decreased by USD 44.5/MT.
VLSFO prices moved lower across most major bunkering hubs during the week. Despite the decline, market fundamentals remain relatively supportive as oil product inventories in Singapore continue to stay at historically low levels amid ongoing supply disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict.
MGO
MGO prices moved lower across all major bunkering hubs during the week. Singapore declined from USD 1,163.0/MT to USD 1,105.0/MT, while Rotterdam and Houston recorded even steeper losses. Fujairah also moved lower, although the decline was less severe than in the Atlantic hubs. The Global Market average decreased from USD 1,342.5/MT to USD 1,258.0/MT.
MGO fell by USD 58.0/MT in Singapore, USD 47.0/MT in Fujairah, USD 90.5/MT in Rotterdam, and USD 88.5/MT in Houston. The Global Market average declined by USD 84.5/MT over the seven-day period.
MGO recorded the largest weekly decline among the main bunker grades. However, middle distillate inventories in Singapore remain relatively tight, with diesel and jet fuel stocks staying near recent lows. This suggests that underlying supply conditions remain firm despite the recent price correction.
HSFO (IFO 380)
HSFO prices also weakened during the week, although the declines were generally less severe than those seen in MGO. Singapore fell from USD 663.5/MT to USD 605.5/MT, while Fujairah, Rotterdam, and Houston all ended the week lower as well. The Global Market average declined from USD 736.5/MT to USD 682.5/MT.
HSFO decreased by USD 58.0/MT in Singapore, USD 50.5/MT in Fujairah, USD 55.5/MT in Rotterdam, and USD 23.0/MT in Houston. The Global Market average recorded a decline of USD 54.0/MT.
HSFO prices weakened during the week, although market fundamentals remain supported by low residual fuel inventories in Singapore. Continued uncertainty surrounding Middle East supply flows may keep the market sensitive to further disruptions despite the recent decline in prices.
The stocks of major MR tanker players experienced a slight upswing last week. Scorpio is said to have opted for term charters for two of its new MR vessels in strengthening freight markets. Meanwhile, Hafnia is pulling out of LR2 and handy size tanker pool operations due to a change in its fleet make-up. Hafnia also continues to gain from its investment in rival Torm, while keeping a merger on the table.
The market continues to adjust pricing the risk while being alert to the confirmation of the US-Iran agreement signing and opening of Hormuz.